Natural gas demand continued to expand strongly through the 2024/25 heating season, with growth this time largely driven by Europe, instead of China, which seems to be slowing down.
In Europe, gas consumption surged by near 10% yoy over the winter season.
Slower wind speeds and lower hydro availability in southern Europe boosted gas burn in the power sector by more than 20%, while colder temperatures supported higher gas use in the residential and commercial sectors.
In the US, harsh winter coldspells boosted natural gas consumption to a new record high over the 2024/25 winter.
Gas demand in rescom was up by near 7% yoy amid colder temperatures, while gas-fired powgen and industrial gas demand grew more moderately.
Higher Henry hub prices are now eroding the competitiveness of gas-fired power plants, supporting gas-to-coal switching in certain US states.
In China, gas demand growth slowed down drastically since November last year and remained broadly flat compared to the previous heating season.
Mild winter weighed on space heating demand in the northern part of the country, while weaker macroeconomics and gas-to-coal switching depressed gas use in industry. China’s LNG imports plummeted by around 20% yoy in Q1 2025, amid higher spot LNG prices, which are also limiting demand growth.
In Russia, estimated deliveries to the domestic market dropped by near 4%, with the country facing one of its mildest winters on record.
In Moscow, heating degree days were down by almost 20% compared to the previous winter, limiting space requirements.
As always, gas storage played a key role in ensuring safe and stable gas deliveries over the winter season.
\Both in Europe and the US, gas storage levels are now well-below their 5y average, meaning that storage injections will be significantly higher this summer… this should keep gas markets rather tight as we enter the filling season.
What is your view? How will gas markets evolve in the comings months? Will Europe’s gas demand continue to recover over the summer time? And how will the LNG competition between Asia and Europe play out?
Source: Greg Molnar
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