Russian LNG imports reached a record high during the first half of 2026, underscoring the gap between Europe’s long-term policy objectives and the realities of today’s LNG market. Greg Molnár examines the key factors behind the surge and what they could mean for the second half of the year.
While the Russian gas phase-out is gradually kicking in, the EU’s LNG imports from Russia’s Yamal LNG plant hit a record high of over 13 bcm in the first half of 2026.
Russia’s LNG exports to the European Union surged by a staggering 50% in H1 2026 compared to H2 2025 and grew by almost 20% on the year. Altogether, Russian LNG accounted for 20% of the EU’s total LNG imports in the first half of the year.
Belgium, France and Spain accounted for around 90% of the EU’s total Russian LNG imports, and they contributed to 80% of the year-on-year growth.
There are several factors which might have contributed to this strong increase:
(1) European offtakers are trying to mitigate the shortfall in Middle Eastern LNG supply;
(2) Buyers with LTCs might be exercising their upward quantity flexibility rights and/or taking some make-up gas before the full ban on Russian LNG enters into force on 1 January 2027;
(3) The transshipment ban on Russian LNG entered into force in March 2025 and might also be contributing to more Russian LNG staying in the EU, as it makes it more difficult and more costly to reach Asian markets;
(4) The Northern Sea Route is navigable from July to mid-November, so it is easier to reach European markets in the first half of the year, while Asian markets are typically more attractive during the summer window from a shipping perspective.
The ban on short-term and spot Russian LNG imports entered into force on 25 April, and a full phase-out of Russian LNG will take place by 1 January 2027.
Source: Greg Molnar
