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European gas prices TTF scenarios under Strait of Hormuz disruption

Strait of Hormuz crisis could send European gas prices back to 2022 highs

European gas prices could surge sharply if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, disrupting LNG flows from Qatar and the UAE. Scenario modelling shows prices rising significantly, with Europe facing tighter supply and lower storage refilling. European gas prices are highly exposed to disruptions in LNG supply through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for exports from Qatar and […]

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Line chart comparing European natural gas inventories and TTF spot prices from 2020 to 2024, showing inventories in red and gas prices in black across four crisis phases.

European natural gas price swings driven more by fundamentals than speculation

European natural gas price swings after 2020 were driven mainly by market fundamentals rather than speculation, according to this working paper. The study finds that supply disruptions, storage policy, and genuine scarcity explain most of the extreme price volatility seen during the 2021–2024 energy crisis, while speculation played only a modest and mostly stabilising role. This paper examines whether speculation […]

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European electricity market prices across Germany, France, Portugal, Spain, Italy, Great Britain, Belgium, the Netherlands and Nord Pool in March 2026

European electricity market prices fall as solar records and lower TTF gas ease pressure

European electricity market prices fell in the fourth week of March, with most major markets posting lower weekly averages and the Iberian market dropping to exceptionally low levels. Record solar output in Spain and Italy, alongside weaker TTF gas futures, helped ease price pressure even as gas remained a key driver of market direction. European electricity market prices declined across […]

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Figure showing gas spot price and EU gas demand impacts under the EU methane emissions regulation adaptive scenario from 2025 to 2035.

EU methane emissions regulation market impacts on gas, LNG and crude oil

EU methane emissions regulation could significantly disrupt EU gas, LNG and crude oil supply under strict enforcement of importer compliance rules. The study finds major risks to energy security, refinery throughput, industrial competitiveness and fuel costs, while a more flexible implementation pathway reduces but does not remove those pressures. EU methane emissions regulation is modelled in this Wood Mackenzie study […]

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EUROPEAN GAS INSIGHTS
UPCOMING EVENTS