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European gas price cap risks undermining energy security and market stability

European gas demand falls sharply, offsetting Strait of Hormuz LNG disruption impact

Gas storage traders profit from volatile market shifts amid Iran crisis
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Chart showing spot and futures prices for electricity, natural gas, coal, crude oil and EU ETS emission allowances from 2007 to 2035.

EU ETS natural gas power plants: why removing them could distort Europe’s power market

EU ETS natural gas power plants are at the centre of a new debate on whether exempting gas-fired generation from carbon costs could reduce electricity prices. The report finds that removing natural gas plants from the EU ETS would create major market distortions, shift generation patterns across Europe, increase gas demand, and deliver uncertain or only temporary price relief. This […]

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Chart comparing projected Day-Ahead versus imbalance price spread distributions in the late 2020s and mid-2030s in the GB power market.

GB system imbalance risk rises as power markets become more renewables-dominated

GB system imbalance risk is becoming a more significant commercial issue as the UK power market shifts toward weather-dependent renewable generation. The report explains that forecast errors, outages, and reduced dispatchable thermal capacity are widening imbalance price risk and making robust modelling increasingly important for asset owners, investors, and flexible assets. GB system imbalance risk is rising as renewable generation […]

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Line chart showing average European wholesale electricity prices from 2021 to 2026, with sharp peaks during the 2021 gas squeeze and the 2022 Russia-Ukraine shock.

European power generation: what fossil fuel shocks teach us about electricity prices

European power generation remains structurally tied to upstream fossil fuel markets, even as the generation mix has shifted from oil and coal to renewables and gas. The report argues that the fuel at the margin, rather than the dominant generation source, continues to drive electricity price shocks across Europe. European power generation has experienced repeated price shocks since the 1970s, […]

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Chart showing Europe’s gas demand staying stronger than previously expected while power demand growth is revised lower, reflecting a slower and more pragmatic energy transition.

Europe gas demand stays central as energy transition turns pragmatic

Europe gas demand is staying central as the energy transition becomes more pragmatic, with affordability, reliability and competitiveness now taking priority over pure decarbonisation. S&P Global argues that rising power demand, slower electrification and policy resets are reinforcing the role of hydrocarbons, especially gas, even as low-carbon investment and renewables continue to expand. S&P Global’s Look Forward: Energy Futures argues […]

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