European natural gas demand returned to growth for the second consecutive month in November, primarily driven by rescom and industry.
Needless to say that consumption remains well-below pre-crisis level.
European natural gas demand grew by an estimated 2% yoy in Nov.
Colder temperatures supported higher space heating demand in rescom, up by more than 10% yoy.
Good news is that the heating intensity remains comparable to last year’s levels, indicating that some of the behavioural changes from last year are still sticking around.
Gas demand in industry shows similarly signs of recovery, although it is rather fragile and highly sensitive to the evolution of prices.
In contrast, gas burn in the power sector continues its freefall, down by 20% yoy amidst the expansion of renewables, higher hydro output and improving nuclear availability.
All in all, gas demand in Nov is up by 2% yoy but down by almost 25% compared to its 2021 levels.
What is your view? How will gas demand evolve in the coming winter months?
The first coldspell in the first days of December is a stark reminder that weather will have the last word on this, although behavioural changes, energy efficiency gains and retrofits could diminish our reliance on weather-related factors.
Source: Greg Molnar (LinkedIn)
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