UK gas and power – week 16

The May 2021 Gas price rebounded 9.2% to 51.15p/therm last week, as a combination of maintenance at gas facilities in the North Sea and forecasted  older weather resulted in a short system, pushing prices up. This bullish sentiment continued across the week, with strong gains seen across the wider energy complex. Further gains in prices were limited by strong LNG send-out.

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The May 2021 Power price climbed 7.1% to £60.67/MWh, in response to cooler forecasts and tracking movements in equivalent gas prices. Wind output, and renewable output generally, remained low across the week.

Gas and power prices also found continued support in carbon prices, while strong oil and coal markets also bolstered prices.

The Oct 2021 12 Month Gas price rose 5.7% to 50.96p/therm, as European gas storage continued to fall to around 29%. UK Gas storage also saw significant withdrawals, falling from 36% on 9th April, to 14% on Friday. Colder weather than normal is resulting in net gas withdrawals later than previous years. This time last year, European gas storage was around 58% full.

The Oct 2021 12 Month Power price rose 3.7% to £60.49/MWh, mirroring movements in the wider energy complex and supported by optimism of future demand recovery. The UK’s Covid vaccine rollout has now seen almost 33 million people receive their first dose.

Brent crude oil saw a rise of 6.1% to $66.77/bbl last week. The gains are difficult to pin down to a single factor, with Covid-19 cases still seeing rises globally, generally associated with drops in demand and price. The main driver is thought to be a weaker dollar, supporting the oil price for other currencies.

Pound Sterling rose 0.9% last week as the UK economy continued to accelerate its economic recovery as the country reached the next stage of the governments ‘Roadmap out of Lockdown”. Shops, hairdressers, and outdoor hospitality have re-opened. UK consumers are estimated to have saved around £160 billion during lockdown. Pent up demand has seen large numbers returning to shops and pubs last week as lockdown eased, providing a boost to the economy.

European coal prices rose 7.0% last week as EU Carbon prices hit a record high and Brent oil prices rose. Unexpected decreases in temperature in numerous European countries led to stronger demand for coal by European power plants.

European carbon continued to break record highs last week, with a 1.8% rise to €44.33/tCO2 as financial investors continue to hold onto a significant share of  the market. As the price continues to rise, questions remain over the UK’s future in the EU carbon market. Concerns have been raised that, should the UK create its own carbon market, there would not be enough market liquidity for it to work successfully.

Source: BEOND GROUP

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