In 2025 Europe is expected to increase its LNG imports by ca. 25-35 mt compared to 2024 if it is to reach 100% storage capacity at the start of the next winter.
The requirement for additional imports comes from four main sources:
Having started the 24/25 winter with less than 100% full storage capacity
Demand above seasonal normal in the winter so far, especially in Novembe
The fact that last year February and March saw demand on average 6% below seasonal normal, meaning that even without especially colder weather the first quarter this year is likely to see higher demand than last year
The need to replace the volumes previously supplied by Russia via Ukraine
This volume of incremental LNG imports is in line with the expected increase in global supply.
This suggests that higher demand in Europe is likely to keep prices in 2025 on average at a level that limits demand growth in the rest of the world.
Source: Giovanni Bettinelli
