How deep will be Russian supply cuts in 2023? Russia’s piped gas exports to the EU are set to fall to 62 bcm in 2022 -their lowest level since the 1980s.
Considering current export flows, oscillating between 70-75 mcm/d, Russian flows would fall by another 35 bcm in 2023 -assuming no further supply cuts.
A complete cut of gas transit via Ukraine, would steepen the supply shortfall to 48 bcm. notably, Gazprom’s management recently threatened Naftogaz that transit would be cut, if the company pursues arbitration against Gazprom.
Adding in the picture TurkStream cuts, supplies to the EU would fall by 60 bcm to 0. Russia recently reported sabotage actions against TurkStream in Russia…
The magnitude of Russia’s gas supply cuts in 2023 will be a key determining factor both for the European and global gas balance.
There is only limited LNG liquefaction capacity coming online next year, altogether LNG supply would increase by a mere 20 bcm, not enough to offset the shortfall in Russian gas deliveries.
This is likely to put additional pressure on the 2023 summer market, when injections will need to speed up to fill up storages at least to 90% capacity, and above that in certain markets (e.g. 95% in Germany).
In this context, demand side management will be crucial to balance out the market.
Improving hydro and nuclear availability (if materialises) would provide some relief, although most
likely would alone not offset the effect of further Russian supply cuts…
What is your view? How will Russian supply evolve in the next year? What does it mean for the European gas market? How can we rebalance? Will demand destruction go on?
Source: Greg MOLNAR
