Will spot and month-ahead gas prices reconnect?

The Great Disconnect: day-ahead gas prices were trading at a record €75/MWh discount compared to the month-ahead contract on TTF last Friday.

In fact, day-ahead and month-ahead prices disconnected from
each other since the start of the new Gas Year, with the spread averaging at near €60/MWh.

Three factors are driving this:

1. High storage levels are providing downward pressure on spot prices, as injection rates are slowing down;

2. Unexpectedly mild weather is primarily influencing spot prices;

3. LNG send-out is strong despite weak demand fundamentals, as LNG deliveries typically follwo

+(1) The month-ahead and winter contracts include also a certain risk premium due to uncertainties on weather and potential supply cuts…

What is your view? how will prices evolve this winter? will spot and month-ahead reconnect?

Source: Greg Molnar (LinkedIn)