Low Carbon Scenario impact on LNG imports

What is the impact to LNG imports under a Low Carbon Europe scenario? How would the gas buyers in Europe manage their risks and contracting strategies in LNG?

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To analyze this, a pair of scenarios is developed to see the net impacts using G2M2 Global Gas Market Modeling System (by RBAC).

In the alternative case, EU countries reduce to 10% of its current gas consumption level, while whole Europe reduce to 45% of its consumption by 2050.

Some highlight results:

Europe LNG net import drops by 25% while Pipeline net imports drops by 50%, in total a net 190 BCM reduction of imports.
Base case: Europe LNG imports market is expected to grow to around 86 millions tons (110 BCM/4.8 tcf) per year by 2050. Europe diversifies its LNG sources from Russia, North America, North and West Africa and Middle East.

Low Carbon case: In total the LNG about 45 million tons (about 50%) versus base case.

North America LNG import lose 2/3 of its volume in Europe, after 2035.

Source: Ning LIN

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