Gas Prices, Russia, Supply and Demand

European gas demand rebounds above seasonal norms as Ukraine exports recover

Editor
February 10, 2026

European gas demand has rebounded more than 10% above seasonal expectations, tightening short-term market fundamentals as exports to Ukraine recover and year-on-year consumption gains exceed 5 bcm.

European apparent demand returned over 10% above seasonal expectations last week. The total year-on-year increase in consumption has now crossed 5 Bcm.

Last week also saw a recovery in exports to Ukraine, with total EU exports reaching a level not seen consistently since the end of December.

Chart showing variation of European gas demand from seasonal expectations over recent weeks — Recent deviations of European gas demand from seasonal norms highlighting periods of above and below average consumption

These factors continue to tighten short-term European market fundamentals, contributing the market volatility we have seen in recent weeks.

Nevertheless, the impact on total annual market balances remains relatively small – while the scope for markets outside of Europe to see an year-on-year growth in imports has been reduced, it is still far from disappearing.

Eventually, then, this year’s increase in global supply is still expected to make its weight felt on market balances.

Source: Giovanni BETTINELLI