TTF gas prices surged to their highest level since Oct23, closing the week at just above $16/mmbtu, amid increasingly tight market conditions.
Several factors are driving this bull run:
(1) colder weather: after a few days of spring, Northwest Europe is again turning to colder weather, while wind speeds are also relatively slow;
(2) low storage levels: EU gas storage fill levels dropped to below 55% of working capacity, with inventories now 6 below their 5y average;
(3) unplanned outages: Freeport LNG had again some glitches, while Norwegian piped gas flows were also depressed due to several unplanned outages, including at the Troll and Åsgard fields;
(4) Malaysia floods: while operations at the Bintulu LNG terminals remain unaffected for now, the heavy floods in Malaysia clearly add to the supply risk.
What is your view? How will the gas market play out for the remainder of heating season? More bull runs to come, or the bears will make a comeback? vVolatility is here to stay…
Source: Greg MOLNAR
