Blog
It’s Fifty in da house: EU storage levels reached 50% of capacity this week, and while injections ramped-up rapidly since the start of April, European stocks are still 17% below their 5y average, meaning that more LNG imports will be needed to build-up adequate stock levels ahead of the 2025/26 winter season. EU storage injections […]
What drives gas price volatility: while market tensions moderated significantly since the 2022 crisis, gas price volatility remains well-above their historical levels, with TTF’s volatility standing 50% above its 10y average in 2024. There are several structural drivers behind this stronger volatility, including: (1) A more intimate link between gas and electricity markets: the gradual […]
It looks like May ended up just above the level seen last year, which had been the lowest since at least 2019 (when my data start). This is after April 2025 had already been 5% lower than last year, recording the lowest level for April in recent history. This is a significant reversal from the […]
Last week’s reduction in Norwegian supply pushed European storage injections further down, with daily injection rates falling to about half of the levels recorded at the start of May. This is despite low demand continuing to support European market balances: unseasonably low consumption has in fact roughly offset lower supply from Norway, keeping projected total […]
Long-term contracts were the foundations of European gas supply security, traditionally meeting more than 80% of demand. today, their share dropped to just around 50%, amidst Europe’s growing exposure to a wild and volatile spot market. The gas and LNG industry was built on long-term contracts: while they provide exporters with financial security (and hence […]
Despite strong volatility, the cross-commodity correlation between TTF, power and carbon prices continued to strengthen since the start of the year, highlighting the increasing integrated nature of trading strategies. The correlation between TTF and carbon prices grew from an average of 0.45 in 2024 to near 0.9 since the start of the year. Similarly, the […]
German intraday power spreads averaged at €125/MWh since the start of the year, reflecting renewable power supply volatility, and inadequate investment in flexibility assets, such as batteries and smarter grid. Intraday electricity price spreads averaged at $30/MWh through 2015-20 in Germany, at a time when the share of renewables stood at around 35% of the […]
EU storage injections surged since the end of April, putting the EU on track to reach its 80-90% fill target by the beginning of the next heating season. EU storage injections stood 70% above last year’s levels since the start, totalling at near 7 bcm, and boosting EU storage levels to above 40% of working […]
Spain declared state of emergency amid an unprecedented power outage, leaving millions without electricity. Spain’s power supply dropped by around 65% starting from midday, causing widespread blackouts across the country, and effecting both Portugal and southern France. The reasons of the massive outage remains unclear for now, although Portugal’s electricity TSO noted that anomalous oscillations […]