Winter outlook: Europe is safer on supply, but one cold snap could spike prices

Europe enters the 2025/26 heating season in a more stable position than the past two winters — with comfortable storage and growing LNG capacity — but flexibility remains thin.

As Timera Energy notes, “Europe has bought itself breathing space, but it hasn’t rebuilt the buffer that allows for complacency.”

The market’s calm exterior masks continued fragility: even a moderate cold spell, a shift in Russian LNG flows, or a slowdown in US exports could see TTF prices jump sharply.

While the medium-term LNG wave arriving from 2026 should strengthen balances, this winter still demands close attention to weather, renewables output, and inter-regional LNG competition.

Key Points

• Forward prices for Winter 2025 have softened year-on-year but remain elevated versus pre-crisis levels.
• Europe’s storage is slightly lower than last year, reducing its cushion against demand spikes.
• The region must still price to attract marginal US LNG through the peak winter months.
• Asia’s LNG demand recovery and cold weather could quickly tighten Europe’s supply-demand balance.
• Supply security is broadly adequate — yet price risk remains skewed to the upside.

Source: Timera Energy

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