One of the key drivers of the current high TTF gas price is the probability of a very cold winter which could empty the gas storages. Therefor it is interesting that the seasonal weather models forecast a mild winter.
Dutch met office Weeronline expects the coming winter to be mild and with a normal amount of rain for the Netherlands. The weather bureau bases that on seasonal models.
“It looks like we start December with calm and often dry weather, with slightly milder than normal,” the weather bureau reports.
Normal amounts of rain and fairly usual temperatures are expected in the second half of December.
January and February are also generally clearly milder than normal according to seasonal models, with probably normal amounts of precipitation.
However, there are scenarios where colder easterly winds could make January colder.
Foreboding
Another harbinger of a mild winter is autumn, which this year was also mild. “After the ten mildest autumn seasons ever, no fewer than eight times a mild winter also followed,” he said. Also, at 12 degrees, the North Sea is currently still quite warm. If the wind blows over the warm North Sea water in the direction of the Netherlands, then real winter cold will stay away.
Source: Kasper WALET
