EU agrees historic phase-out of Russian gas by 2027
December 3, 2025
TTF prices face renewed volatility risks as investment funds turn increasingly bearish on the European gas market, with ING reporting that speculative positioning has flipped from a net long of 15.6 TWh to a net short of 11.4 TWh — the first time funds have been short TTF since March 2024.
This shift comes even as storage levels fall below 78% amid colder-than-usual early-winter weather, with fresh short positions pushing gross exposure to a record high.
The move aligns with comments from analyst Seb Kennedy, who noted last week that “the EU gas market is coiled like a spring” as speculative money piles into downside bets despite unresolved geopolitical and weather risks.
ING warns that such a heavy concentration of shorts creates significant positioning risk: any surprise in LNG flows, demand, or temperature could trigger a sharp short-covering rally.
With speculative pressure rising while fundamentals remain uncertain, positioning itself may become a key driver of TTF price volatility in the coming weeks.
