Russia gas exports to China could increase to around 150bcm
September 23, 2025
The EU’s gas market exposure to the global spot market is set to rise drastically in the coming years from less than 20% to over 50%.
Long-term supply contracts and domestic production typically covered at least 80% of the EU’s gas demand in the past, meaning that spot procurements played only a minor role, most often used for portfolio optimisation.
2022 has drastically changed this. Russia’s gas supply cuts, together with the gradual expiry of other long-term contracts and the decline in domestic production rapidly increases the EU’s exposure to the spot market and its price volatility.
Altogether, spot procurements and destination-flexible LNG contracts would meet about 48% of the EU’s total gas demand in 2023 and their share could rise to above 50% by 2025 if EU companies don’t engage in a more active contracting strategy.
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, EU companies signed around 20 bcm/y of LNG contracts -just one-seventh of Russia’s piped gas deliveries to the EU in 2021.
What is your view? How will EU LNG contracting strategies evolve? What are the challenges having 50% of spot in your portfolio? What are the key issues around long-term contracting?
