For the last few days, the French PEG gas hub has been the cheapest in NWE/UK, trading at a discount to NBP.
As a result, maintenance in the Kollsness processing plant and Troll field that started on 13 Aug and 15 Aug respectively have likely affected Norwegian deliveries into Dunkerque (Franpipe) which are down 30% today compared to 10 Aug-22.
Since March, when the NBP started diverging from other European hubs and traded at a steep discount, planned and unplanned outages in NCS would translate into lower Gassco nominations to the UK, primarily via the Easington pipeline.
Norwegian flows towards continental Europe remained near max capacity (251 mcm/d) most of the time.
As winter approaches, the current forward curve indicates that NBP will trade close to European hubs due to high seasonal demand and the absence of storage in the UK.
During that period, unplanned outages in the NCS will probably affect continental flows more significantly than in Q2/Q3 2022.
