Russia recently announced that it would be closing off gas flows to Poland and Bulgaria as a result of both countries’ refusal to pay for their gas purchases in rubles. In reality, flows to Poland through the Yamal pipeline had already experienced severe losses towards the end of 2021, well before Russia’s proclamation.
Most Yamal pipeline gas flows through the point of Kondratki though the pipeline also has smaller entry points into Poland through the cities of Tieterowka and Wysokoje. In early January, the Kondratki point – the largest entry point into Poland capacity-wise – already experienced near 0 Bcf/d flows. While flows had stabilized briefly in February and March, gas pipeline volumes never surged back to their 3.5 Bcf/D peaks from pre-2021.
Russia’s announcement to cut off flows happens to just be a formal verbal confirmation of a reality that historical Yamal pipeline flows had already indicated the potential for.
Volumes for other pipeline routes into Europe, on the other hand, have remained steady – the Nord Stream I is still flowing a stable 6 Bcf/D; flows to Ukraine have suffered somewhat, falling from ~3.9 Bcf/D a month ago to ~2 Bcf/D today. Unlike the Yamal, these pipeline flows have never dropped to 0 other than during their annual maintenance periods.
Source: Gelber and Associates
