European gas storage starts 2026 from a weaker position

European gas storage entered 2026 at a notably weaker level than a year earlier, increasing the importance of winter weather and the upcoming injection season for market balance.

Storage sites closed 2025 around 61% full, compared with roughly 72% at the same point last year, leaving Europe with a smaller buffer as it moves through Q1.

This lower starting position does not automatically imply tightness, but it does raise the market’s sensitivity to near-term conditions.

A colder-than-normal first quarter would translate directly into higher withdrawals and larger refill requirements later in the year, while a mild winter would ease pressure on the summer injection season.

Current market signals suggest a relatively relaxed outlook. Gas prices have continued to soften, supported by strong LNG inflows into Europe and reduced competition for spot cargoes, particularly from Asia.

Seasonal spreads have narrowed, indicating limited concern about summer tightness and suggesting that the market expects refill needs to remain manageable under normal conditions.

From a storage and swing perspective, flatter forward curves and lower volatility have reduced optionality values, reinforcing the view that storage is being priced more as a balancing tool than as a scarcity-driven asset.

This environment supports stable system operation but also leaves the market more exposed to unexpected shifts in weather, supply disruptions or changes in global LNG flows.

Overall, European gas storage dynamics at the start of 2026 point to a market that is comfortable but not complacent. With inventories beginning the year at lower levels, Q1 weather outcomes will play a decisive role in shaping refill demand, price formation and storage utilisation through the rest of the year.

Source: KYOS Energy Analytics – Gas Storage and Swing Report, January 2026