European gas market integration will become increasingly critical as the EU moves to phase out Russian gas imports and reconfigure flows across Central and Southeast Europe, according to Greg Molnar.
The EU’s ban on Russian gas imports is set to kick in at the end of April, with imports fully phased out by Nov 27 at the very latest. While this creates additional market space for non-Russian LNG, there is also a clear need for greater market integration, especially in Central and Southeast Europe.
The European Union imported just over 30 bcm of Russian gas in 2025, meeting just around 10% of the bloc’s natural gas demand, down from over 40% before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The EU’s ban on Russian gas imports will be implemented step by step, with short-term contract and spot procurements phased out by June and LNG imports completely banned by the end of 2026. Russian LNG sourced from Yamal is likely to be redirected to other markets, including Asia. Shipping logistics could limit a full diversion of flows, especially when considering the EU’s transshipment ban.
Russian piped gas imports will be fully phased out by Nov 27. The EU imported just below 15 bcm of Russian piped gas in 2025, largely concentrated in Hungary, Slovakia and Greece.
A full phase out of Russian gas would necessitate a profound reconfiguration of gas flows across Central and Southeast Europe, taking into consideration the potential implications on non-EU countries, including Ukraine and Serbia.
In this context, closer market integration will be key, including via new supply routes, such as the reinforced Vertical Gas Corridor, which would enable stronger south-north flows and provide better access to the global LNG market via the regasification plans in Greece.
There are also question marks around the phase out itself, with Hungary taking the case to the European Court of Justice…
What is your view? How will the Russian gas phase out impact the European market? What market opportunities does it create? And how should the Central European gas system be reinforced?
Source: Greg MOLNAR
