European rescom gas demand surged by 70% on first signs of cold

Europe faced its first mini-coldspell last week, boosting up rescom gas demand by 70% in just one week and limiting storage injections.

Subseasonal temperatures in late September supported stronger space heating demand, especially across northwest European markets. preliminary data suggests, that rescom demand soared 10% above its 5y average (and 16% above its 3y average).

Daily rescom demand soared by almost 140 mcm/d between 20-26 Sep, this roughly equates to 1.5 TWh/d. to put this into perspective: France’s entire nuclear fleet generates around 1 TWh a day. and I don’t want to calculate how many wind mills you need… still early morning here. but the energy flex of the gas system is difficult to match.

These early coldspells also highlight that the filling season can sometimes end earlier then expected: storage injections slowed by almost 40% week-on-week, despite healthy LNG inflows and Norwegian piped gas returning to above the 300 mcm/d.

We are entering now the mercy season: temps and wind speeds will play a crucial role on whether Europe will be able to fill up its storages to adequate levels… if not, competition for LNG this winter will be harsher than previously expected.

What is your view? how will the upcoming heating season play out? do you see down or upside risks for TTF?

Source: Greg MOLNAR