Last week saw European gas demand 15% higher than seasonal normal for the third consecutive week.
To put this in context, this is now the largest demand anomaly above seasonal normal since the invasion of Ukraine.
As a result, storage withdrawals reached 6.5 TWh/d last week. In total, withdrawals for November 2024 so far have exceeded the previous year’s values by a volume equivalent to ca. 5% of total storage capacity.
The result of this exceptional November is likely to be an addition of ca. 5-6 Bcm to European LNG demand in 2025 compared to the expectations of a month ago, as this will be required to replenish this additional volume withdrawn from storage.
This is certainly not insignificant and will cause a relative tightening of the market in the coming year, but it is not yet a material cause of concern for Europe’s overall security of supply.
It remains to be seen, also, whether higher European market prices, which have been reported to be causing diversions of LNG cargoes to Europe, will already help to fill some of this gap in the coming weeks.
Source: Giovanni Bettinelli
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