European gas infrastructure market sees renewed investor interest

European gas infrastructure market is seeing renewed investor interest as volatility recedes and LNG plays a bigger role in the continent’s supply mix.

Yet beneath this return to normality lies a more complex picture: valuations are increasingly influenced by a new set of geopolitical and policy uncertainties. As Francesco Sassi and Giovanni Bettinelli note in their recent commentary, understanding these risks is becoming essential for anyone assessing the long-term outlook for gas assets in Europe.

“There are two key sources of geopolitical uncertainty that need to be considered by investors when assessing the value of European gas infrastructure: the future of Russian pipeline exports to Europe, and the future evolution of EU energy policy.”

Key takeaways:

• M&A interest is returning as the post-crisis environment stabilises and Europe leans more heavily on LNG.
• Infrastructure valuations now reflect new flow patterns and the heightened importance of flexible access to hubs and import capacity.
• Risk 1: Even a partial or delayed phase-out of Russian pipeline supply could quickly reshape utilisation rates and asset values.
• Risk 2: A potential softening of EU decarbonisation policy — driven by politics, trade pressures and lower fossil prices — could materially alter long-term scenarios.
• For investors, both factors introduce significant upside and downside risks that must be integrated into acquisition strategies and asset management plans.

The analysis underscores how the European gas infrastructure story remains fluid. Geopolitics, LNG market shifts and the evolution of EU policy will continue to shape valuations — making scenario planning critical for investors across the European gas value chain.

Read the full analysis by Francesco Sassi and Giovanni Bettinelli