American President Donald Trump is threatening to cut off US LNG supplies to Europe if Brussels refuses to ratify a trade agreement favorable to Washington.
Recent analyses exposed this new vulnerability for the EU.
Incentivising imports of US LNG has created a potentially high-risk new geopolitical dependency.
The EU’s plan to increase its reliance on one energy supplier is a déjà vu moment for a continent still recovering from an energy crisis.
The pivot away from Russian gas has increased the EU’s strategic dependency on US LNG, the most expensive LNG for EU buyers.
EU imports of US LNG rose from 21bcm in 2021 to an estimated 81bcm in 2025, an almost fourfold increase. This means that EU countries sourced 57% of their LNG imports from the US in 2025.
Long-term LNG deals will not guarantee Central and Eastern Europe’s security of energy supply.
The EU’s REPowerEU plan to end its reliance on Russian fossil fuels aims to enhance energy security through diversification, demand reduction and making energy more affordable.
An overreliance on US gas contradicts this strategy.
Source: Ana Marie Jaller Makarewicz
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES:
Rising European LNG imports increase dependence on US gas supplies
