TTF prices surge as European gas market tightens
September 2, 2026
The bulls are back: TTF prices are on the bull run once again, rising by nearly 5% today and by almost 50% since the start of August to €77/MWh (or over $26/mmbtu).
There are several factors contributing to this latest episode of bull run:
(1) Hormuz remains closed amid continued geopolitical tensions, chocking off almost 20% of global LNG supply;
(2) Norwegian maintenance season is here with flows now dipping below 300 mcm/d, while they are usually closer to the 330-350 mcm/d range;
(3) European storage injections are speeding up as inventories are standing 20% below 5y average and winter is coming…
(4) LNG competition between Asia and Europe is heating up for scarce spot cargoes
We are now at price levels which could trigger demand destruction in energy and gas-intensive industries both in Asia and Europe, while in the power sector we are already well-above the coal switching range…
Source: Greg Molnar
