European LNG imports surge to record highs as reliance on LNG deepens

European LNG imports surged in 2025 and are set to reach a new all-time high in 2026, as LNG becomes an increasingly structural component of the region’s gas supply and energy security.

Europe’s LNG imports surged by a whopping 30% in 2025 and are set to reach a new all-time high record in 2026, with LNG becoming the region’s structural baseload supply.

Stronger domestic demand together with higher storage injections, lower piped gas imports and higher export flows to Ukraine drove up Europe’s LNG imports by 40 bcm in 2025 to a new all-time high of over 175 bcm, with LNG now accounting for around 40% of the region’s primary gas supply.

Europe’s reliance on LNG is expected to further increase in 2026. While gas demand is forecast to decline, other factors are set to drive Europe’s LNG imports to a new record high of over 185 bcm.

First, EU inventory levels are now trending 14 bcm below their 5-year average, indicating that storage injection needs could be significantly higher through the 2026 summer season.

Second, Europe’s piped gas imports are expected to marginally decline amid lower Russian and Iranian flows, only partially offset by stronger deliveries from Norway.

Third, EU exit flows to Ukraine could increase further this year, with the country’s domestic production capacity severely reduced following Russia’s attacks.

The good news is that global LNG supply is expected to increase by more than 40 bcm this year, enough to feed both the European and Asian markets.

While there are of course inherent uncertainties around this forecast, it is also very clear that LNG became a structural baseload supply source for Europe and a cornerstone of the region’s gas and energy supply security.

What is your view? How will Europe’s LNG imports evolve in 2026 and over the medium term? Could we see more competition with Asia? How will the TTF-JKM spread evolve?

Source: Greg Molnar (LinkedIn)