Bearish spot fundamentals about to take over concerns on Russian gas supply?

European gas prices were mixed yesterday: slightly up on the spot, slightly down on the curve as the improvement in gas stock levels tends to gradually reduce the Russian supply risk premium.

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Even the rise in coal prices (+2.48% for API2 1st nearby prices, +2.31% for Cal 2023 prices) failed to lend support.

On the pipeline supply side, Russian flows weakened to 192 mm cm/day on average yesterday, compared to 202 mm cm/day on Friday. On their side, Norwegian flows increased slightly, averaging 323 mm cm/day, compared to 320 mm cm/day on Friday.

At the close, NBP ICE July 2022 prices dropped by 9.170 p/th (-5.74%) compared to last Wednesday, to 150.670 p/th, equivalent to €60.252/MWh.

TTF ICE July 2022 prices were down by 54 euro cents (-0.65%), closing at €82.558/MWh.

On the far curve, TTF ICE Cal 2023 prices dropped by 16 euro cents (-0.20%), closing at €81.531/MWh.

In Asia, JKM spot prices increased by 0.75%, to €75.297/MWh. July 2022 prices dropped by 2.53%, to €74.519/MWh; August 2022 prices dropped by 4.72%, to €73.195/MWh.

TTF ICE July 2022 closed yesterday slightly below the 1-year average: €82.558/MWh versus €82.726/MWh. The difference is so small that we can consider that we are within the margin of error. Therefore, this needs to be confirmed.

And indeed, this morning, prices are breaking more clearly this key support, trading at €80.20/MWh at the time of writing. In addition to the daily price, the 5-day average is about to drop below this 1-year average.

This would mean that bearish spot fundamentals are taking over concerns on Russian supply. A decisive turning point, which will have to be confirmed during the day.

Source: EnergyScan