European gas prices up as Norwegian supply remains relatively weak

European gas prices were up on Friday as unplanned maintenance continued to limit Norwegian supply (which rebounded slightly on Friday, to 306 mm cm/day on average, compared to 298 mm cm/day on Thursday, but still well below the 325 mm cm/day of the previous week). On their side, Russian flows were almost stable, averaging 209 mm cm/day, compared to 208 mm cm/day on Thursday.

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The evolution in coal prices (+1.75% for API2 1st nearby prices, -1.57% for Cal 2023 prices) sent mixed signals.

Note that tensions between Ukraine’s state-owned Naftogaz and Russia’s Gazprom were reported to rise on Friday, with the former saying that Gazprom had not been paying in full for transit services, raising concerns for possible disruptions to the gas transit through the country.

At the close, NBP ICE June 2022 prices increased by 8.910 p/th (+6.17%), to 153.360 p/th, equivalent to €61.718/MWh. TTF ICE June 2022 prices were up by 90 euro cents (+1.05%), closing at €86.875/MWh. On the far curve, TTF ICE Cal 2023 prices increased by €1.26 (+1.63%), closing at €78.602/MWh.

In Asia, JKM spot prices dropped by 2.03%, to €74.967/MWh; July 2022 prices increased by 0.78%, to €71.543/MWh; August 2022 prices dropped by 1.72%, to €77.540/MWh.

With the drop in Norwegian flows, TTF ICE June 2022 prices have interrupted their downtrend, finding an equilibrium around their 5-day average. On their side, supported by the resilience in coal prices, TTF Cal 2023 prices were more bullish. The 20-day average could set a resistance, but a rise to the 5-day High cannot be excluded.

Source: EnergyScan