Nord Stream: how low can it flow?

How low it can flow? Nord Stream maintenance brings down Russian flows to just 70 mcm/d -their lowest level in our records.

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To put this into perspective, Russian flows to the EU were higher even during the 2006 and 2009 supply cuts, as at the time the YAMAL pipeline (90 mcm/d) was available to provide some back-up.

In the past, Gazprom typically boosted gas supplies to the EU via other routes during the annual Nord Stream maintenance, e.g. via YAMAL or Ukraine.

This year is of course different: the YAMAL pipeline is not available, due to sanctions imposed by Russia, and of course Gazprom is not keen to increase deliveries via Ukraine… although nominations are up by 1 mcm/d, I’m afraid this won’t be enough to save the day…

Storage injections will drastically slow down in the next 10 days of Nord Stream maintenance.

And of course we will be closely watching what happens after the 21 July…

What is your view? Will Nord Stream flows return and if yes at what levels?

Source: Greg Molnar (LinkedIn)