LNG continues to maintain a price divergence

European gas prices were mixed on Friday: rather down on the markets benefiting from strong LNG supply like the UK NBP, rather up on the others.

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On the pipeline supply side, Russian flows remained stable on Friday, at 104 mm cm/day on average.

Norwegian flows increased to 324 mm cm/day on average, compared to 320 mm cm/day on Thursday.

At the close, NBP ICE August 2022 prices dropped by 7.360 p/th (-2.96%), to 240.94 p/th, equivalent to €98.436/MWh.

TTF ICE August 2022 prices were up by €3.270 (+2.26%), closing at €147.784/MWh. On the far curve, TTF ICE Cal 2023 prices increased by €1.581 (+1.48%), closing at €108.177/MWh.

In Asia, JKM spot prices increased by 2.25%, to €132.611/MWh; August 2022 prices increased by 0.04%, to €126.549/MWh.

Once again, on Friday, TTF Cal 2023 prices closed at a level very close to the 5-day High. They increased their premium against coal prices (-0.31% for API2 1st nearby prices on Friday, -0.08% for Cal 2023 prices), which continues to fuel the loss of market share of gas compared to coal in the global energy mix.

In the absence of a decisive fundamental element, the 5-day High level (€110.43/MWh for today) should continue to set a resistance.

So far, profit taking by financial participants failed to pull prices below this level (for instance towards the R1 level, at 107.94/MWh for today), but it is still a possibility.

Source: EnergyScan