Last week European apparent demand was on average 10% above seasonal expectations, with a peak close to 20%. This caused two days of unseasonal net withdrawals from storage across the continent.
The result is that it is now unlikely that European gas in storage will record-high levels seen last year at the start of November.
Specifically, 1-2% of total fill ahead of the winter season likely to have been lost as a result of last week. The actual gap by 1st November compared to last year however will depend on the evolution of demand over this month.
This is obviously still too small to significantly impact the overall balance of the market in the coming winter, but it does tighten the market and introduce further uncertainty in an already volatile time.
Source: Giovanni Bettinelli
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