A difficult balancing act: the global gas market is balancing out the Hormuz supply shock with growing macroeconomic pain, higher emissions and ultimately reduced supply security ahead of the 2026/27 winter season. The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz choked off almost 60 bcm of LNG supply from the global gas market since […]
Thirsty for gas: gas-fired power in the European Union surged by 10% yoy since April despite the Hormuz crisis and the sharp increase in gas prices. The steep decline in hydro power generation (-16%), together with subdued nuclear power output (-5%) and slower wind speeds (-1%) increased the call on gas- and coal-fired power plants […]
It’s a bear necessity: TTF prices fell by almost 20% since mid-September, when a heavy bull run drove up Asian and Europe gas prices close to $30/mmbtu, their highest levels since Dec22. What is driving the current bearish trend and is it really structural? (1) Peace talks: reemergence of negotiations on the Strait of Hormuz […]
Gas demand destruction is becoming a key factor in balancing the market as high prices push industrial users to reduce consumption. The danger zone: European and Asian gas prices surged by more than 50% since end of July, hovering now in the $25–30/mmbtu range — their highest level since December 2022. These price levels are […]
Winter gas markets are heading into the heating season with unprecedented uncertainty, as Hormuz remains largely closed while EU storage levels are at decade lows. What could go wrong? On the supply side, the single most important uncertainty remains the duration of the Hormuz closure. Assuming that the Strait is closed until the end of […]
The bulls are back: TTF prices are on the bull run once again, rising by nearly 5% today and by almost 50% since the start of August to €77/MWh (or over $26/mmbtu). There are several factors contributing to this latest episode of bull run: (1) Hormuz remains closed amid continued geopolitical tensions, chocking off almost […]
TTF prices surged in August as tighter global LNG supply, stronger European gas demand and Norwegian outages combined to put renewed upward pressure on the market. The increase came as gas prices across Europe and Asia climbed to their highest levels since the start of the Hormuz crisis. Asian and European gas prices in August […]
TTF gas prices surged by more than 60% since the start of July. The current upward trend seems to be more fundamentals driven than the panic price surge witnessed in March, reflecting a profound change in market sentiment ahead of the heating season. TTF prices closed yesterday at their highest level since January 2023, standing […]
EU gas storage is on track to reach its lowest end-of-injection-season fill level since 2013, as weak commercial incentives continue to constrain injections. Europe’s storage filling is on track to its lowest since 2013, with current injections trends sufficient to reach just 73% fill levels – well below the EU’s 80-90% target. The European gas […]